It is quite clear now that travel for leisure is unlikely to happen in 2020. There are various reasons for this.
Firstly, Covid-19 vaccines are likely to be available only from early 2020. Even when they are available then, it will be immunisation will be progressive. Those who need it most – the vulnerable, the frontline & essential workers, etc. will be the first to get it.
Secondly, vaccines are not a silver bullet to address this crisis. Every country must have a consistent set of measures to trace, track, contain and treat infected patients. Countries like Hong Kong & Australia recently experienced sudden spikes in infection. It will be much worst if every country suddenly opens up.
There are certain sectors & industries who will be most impacted by this reality. Businesses dependent on tourism income are first on our minds – the hotels, tour agencies, airlines, reservation companies, etc. and all businesses that are downstream or related to these businesses will be impacted.
It is clear that the world-wide recession will be here and recovery will be slow and progressive. Today is 24 July 2020. The outlook should be better in Jan 2020. So brace yourselves for some challenging months ahead before things get better….